Kinyarwanda
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Rwanda’s economy surges, but health and tourism decline
Rwanda’s economy expanded sharply in the third quarter of 2025, with GDP growing by 11.8% year-on-year to Frw5.525 trillion, driven mainly by industry, trade and construction. But behind the strong headline growth, health services and tourism contracted, raising concerns about affordability, access and the uneven distribution of economic gains at a time when the cost of medical care has recently increased.
According to figures released by the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR), the size of the economy rose from Frw4.659 trillion in the third quarter of 2024 to Frw5.525 trillion in the same period this year. The expansion marks a sharp acceleration from growth rates of 6.5% in the first quarter and 7.8% in the second.
Services remained the backbone of the economy, accounting for 57% of GDP, followed by industry at 22% and agriculture at 15%. Together, the three sectors pushed overall growth to its fastest pace so far in 2025.
Industry leads the surge
Industry recorded the strongest performance, expanding by 17% in the third quarter. Construction activity was a key driver, supported by rising output of building materials.
Manufacturing growth was boosted by a 44% increase in cement production and a 28% rise in metal products. Chemical production increased by 25%, while food processing grew by 12%, reflecting improving industrial capacity.
The Minister of Finance and Economic Planning, Yusuf Murangwa, described the 11.8% growth as “positive,” noting that it remains within the targets set under the National Strategy for Transformation (NST2), which aims for average growth of at least 9%.
“The figures show that from the beginning of the year, we have remained within the range of what we had planned,” Minister Murangwa said.
Agriculture grows, exports outperform food crops
Agriculture expanded by 10% during the quarter, supported largely by export-oriented farming. According to NISR Director General Ivan Murenzi, export crops posted exceptional growth.
“In agriculture, we see a strong contribution from export crops, which increased by 65%, while food crops grew by only 4%,” Mr Murenzi said. “Coffee production increased by 32%, while tea output doubled.”
Fishing expanded by 34% and livestock by 6%, further supporting agricultural growth. However, the weak performance of food crops highlights continued vulnerability in domestic food supply.
Services grow, but key sectors weaken
The services sector grew by 10% and contributed 5.5 percentage points to overall GDP growth. Wholesale and retail trade expanded by 20%, reflecting strong consumer demand. Information and communication services grew by 17%, while financial services increased by 10%.
Yet not all services benefited from the economic surge. Hotels and restaurants declined by 3%, extending a slowdown that began earlier in the year. Health services contracted sharply by 16%, making them one of the worst-performing sub-sectors in the economy.
The decline in health services comes at a sensitive moment. It coincides with a recent upward revision of government-approved medical service fees, with the cost of some treatments reportedly doubling. While the national accounts data does not establish a direct causal link, the timing raises concerns about affordability, utilisation of services and access to healthcare, especially for lower-income households.
Trend signals deeper imbalance
Quarterly trends point to differing dynamics within services. Health services had shown resilience earlier in the year before reversing sharply in the third quarter. Tourism-related services, by contrast, began weakening in the second quarter and continued to struggle in Q3.
This divergence suggests that while Rwanda’s growth is being propelled by capital-intensive and market-driven activities, labour-intensive and social services are under increasing pressure.
Rwanda’s third-quarter performance confirms strong economic momentum. Industrial output is rising. Trade is expanding. Infrastructure investment remains robust.
But the contraction of health services and tourism exposes structural imbalances beneath the surface. As growth accelerates, questions are emerging about who benefits most, and at what social cost.
The challenge for policymakers will be to sustain rapid expansion while ensuring that essential services remain accessible and resilient. Without addressing these gaps, Rwanda’s impressive growth numbers risk masking pressures that could undermine long-term inclusiveness and stability.
